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Thomas Exter

Slowdown Showdown

Updated: Apr 20, 2023

The pandemic has pushed population growth down faster than expected. But it’s like when Congress “cuts spending” they’re actually just reducing the growth rate of spending. Census Bureau experts have long projected a slowdown in US population growth due primarily to the aging of the population. Since 2010, the population has grown by about 2.3 million people a year. That would continue, based on expert assumptions, until 2030 when the big slowdown will start to add only 1.8 million people a year. Well guess what? The pandemic, combined with immigration policies and postponed procreation, has accelerated the slowdown. Last year, before the pandemic, Census Bureau estimated only 1.6 million were added to the population between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019. This year, with net international migration at a near standstill and increased deaths due to COVID-19, the US population is likely to grow even more slowly. Add to that, couples tend to have fewer children during trying economic times. Fewer births, more deaths, and less immigration is a recipe for an earlier slowdown.


Sources: US Census Bureau, Estimates Program and Projections Program.

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