Whatever the causes of California’s wildfires and they are multiple, the demographic impacts may amplify existing trends or represent tipping points. Since migration trends represent people voting with their feet, they can portend winds of change with wide-ranging implications. And like voting, migrants express their needs and opinions about the states they move to (vote for) as well as about the state they are leaving.
First, the big picture: California is a gateway magnet for international migrants as well as migrants from other states. Like New York, California loses more residents to other states than it gains. That is negative, net domestic migration. But also like New York, more international migrants enter California than leave the state for overseas destinations, softening the impact of population loss to other states. Specifically, according to the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey 2018 data, California gained about 285K relatively permanent international immigrants, which offset a net domestic loss of about 200K, the result of nearly 700K "movin' outta here" leavers minus 500K incoming fresh California dreamers.
Potential migrants typically weigh multiple factors before moving. They look at the positive aspects of potential destinations and measure those against the negatives of their current place of residence. The positives of current residence and the negatives of moving can forestall the ultimate decision, however. Inertia also plays a role as Cornell researchers figured out a long time ago: the longer you stay in one place, the more likely it is you will not move. Brilliant!
Shorter moves are more common than long-distance moves. For example, moves across a county or to a new county within the state may represent a step up in housing quality, a shift in desired commuting pattern, or a less fire-prone area, while maintaining one’s local employment. State-to-state moves, on the other hand, are more serious business. For families, moves across state boundaries can involve multiple job changes, new housing market conditions, and shifts in the cost of living. Key long-distance motivators are employment, education, family, and cost of living, among others, perhaps including wildfires, power outages, and freeway congestion.
Where do Californians go when they feel the need to get out? Based on the Census Bureau’s most recent American Community Survey data on state-to-state migration flows (the 2018 one-year data), the top destination for Californians with itchy feet is Texas. Fully, 86,000 Californians moved to Texas during a one-year period.* Divide that number by 365, and the implication is that 236 Californians move to Texas every day, making Texas the most likely destination state for exiting Californians.
The second-most favored destination for Californians on the move is Arizona, which took in 69,000 migrants. In fact, the three adjacent states, perhaps unsurprisingly – Arizona (69K), Nevada (50K), and Oregon (43K) – are among the top five destinations. The only non-adjacent state other than Texas among the top five destinations is Washington State, which took in 55,000 Californians during a year’s time. In total, nearly 700,000 (691,000) Californians left for other states, over 1,700 per day. If wildfire and power outage weariness grows, these five states may want to keep a look-out for more Golden State refugees.
*The ACS survey asks respondents where they lived one year ago. Since the survey is ongoing, those responding during 2018 indicated where they lived one year prior. They may have moved during either 2017 or 2018, but from the point of view of the respondents as a sample cohort, the migration estimate refers to a one-year window, as if they were all interviewed on the same day.