Americans overall are moving less for a variety of reasons including the high cost of moving, dual-earner households complicate job-related moves, locked-in low-interest mortgages, and simple inertia. The longer folks stay in one place, the more likely it is they will remain. Of course, older adults move less than younger adults, so aging populations depress migration rates.
Despite all that, however, some metros stand out as favorites for aging in place, especially among older adults and retirees. Two Pennsylvania metros – Johnstown (just east of Pittsburgh) and Altoona (home to the Curve, a Pirates AA affiliate) – are in the top five “age-in-place” favorites. They indexed about 20 percent above the national average for the percent of households that moved into their current house prior to 2010, based on a census tract analysis.
Two other metros in the top ten on this measure are Texas borderlands metros – Brownsville-Harlingen, TX, and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX. One might speculate that small business owners in those areas are reluctant to move beyond their local markets. Also, strong family ties within the Latino population make long-distance moves less likely.
Areas with historically weak or challenged economies also mark the top ten metros by this measure: Elmira, NY; Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA; Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH; and Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH. Workers able and willing to move, leave behind folks most likely to stay put.
Of interest to reverse mortgage lenders are indexes that capture the aging-in-place habits of older adults and retirees. Two measures are worth noting: the share of homeowners aged 65 or older with no mortgage and the subgroup of those whose homes are valued at $300,000 or more. A census tract-level analysis and ranking of metro areas on those measures yields interesting results.
Two Florida metros surge to the top: Punta Gorda, FL, and Naples-Marco Island, FL. Well known as long-time retirement meccas, retirees make up relatively larger population proportions, so the share with no mortgage is not that surprising. Most of the other metros with higher-than-average shares of homeowners aged 65 or older with paid-off mortgages are notable as modest-income metros.
Retirees with no mortgage and a home worth at least $300,000 populate several of the largest and most expensive metros in the country. San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim top the list with indexes indicating shares of homeowners in that category more than double the national average. Seattle and Denver follow close behind. Then, Bend, OR – a smaller but fast-growing metro – has attracted young migrants but also mortgage-free retirees with homes worth over $300K.
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT, and Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV make the top ten and are known for expensive real estate. Sacramento, CA, and Worcester, MA are two mid-sized metros that may offer opportunities for reverse mortgage lenders.
Putting it all together, metro area demographics highlight multiple reasons why retirees with paid-off mortgages may cluster together. Building up an analysis from census tract data provides some food for thought. Drilling down to census tract neighborhoods can likewise kindle insights for actionable marketing and direct mail plans. This analysis illustrates how reverse mortgage prospects are "aging in place" together and are likely neighbors to each other.